Offshore investments in Chinese govt bonds slowed in 2021 on diverging policy
SHANGHAI : Investment inflows into Chinese government bonds
(CGBs) pushed offshore holdings of the instruments to record highs in 2021, but
at a slower pace as diverging monetary policy between China and the United
States ate away at Chinese bonds' yield premiums.
CGB holdings by offshore investors stood at a record 2.45
trillion yuan (US$384.51 billion) at the end of December, according to data
released Monday evening by China Central Depository and Clearing Co (CCDC), the
main depository institution for China's interbank bond market.
That was up 30.7per cent from a year earlier, according to
Reuters calculations of the data, slower than a 43.7per cent increase logged in
2020.
Holdings of quasi-sovereign bonds issued by China's policy
banks rose 1per cent on the month to a record 1.08 trillion yuan. That was up
18per cent from a year earlier, compared with an 84.4per cent jump in 2020.
The slower rise reflected a narrowing spread between Chinese
and U.S. yields, with the 10-year yield gap falling nearly 100 basis points to
124.52 basis points by the end of December. The drop nearly reversed the move
in 2020, when foreign holdings of CGBs rose at their fastest annual pace on record.
Standard Chartered analysts Becky Liu and Jeffrey Zhang said
that they expect Chinese rates to continue to fall in the first quarter of 2022
on more policy easing, slow growth and weak issuance, but that they could rise
on higher supply and stabilising growth in subsequent quarters.
"(The year) 2022 will see a rare divergence of monetary
policy between China and most DM economies ... We see a risk of more material
monetary policy easing in H1, including more broad-based reserve requirement
ratio (RRR) cuts, in addition to targeted measures through re-lending and
re-discounting facilities," they said in a note.
Nevertheless, "foreign inflows may rise steadily to
CNY700-800bn, on relatively high carry and likely better return," they
said.
Additional interbank market holdings data from Shanghai
Clearing House was not yet available on Tuesday.
(US$1 = 6.3718 Chinese yuan)
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