Shell says electricity to meet 60 percent of China's energy use by 2060
SINGAPORE : China may triple electricity generation to
supply 60per cent of the country's total energy under Beijing's carbon-neutral
goal by 2060, up from the current 23per cent, Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday.
Shell is one of the largest global investors in China's
energy sector, with business covering gas production, petrochemicals and a
retail fuel network. A leading supplier of liquefied natural gas, it has
recently expanded into low-carbon business such as hydrogen power and electric
vehicle charging.
In a rare assessment of the country's energy sector by an
international oil major, Shell said China needed to take quick action this
decade to stay on track to reach the carbon-neutrality goal.
China has mapped out plans to reach peak emissions by 2030,
but has not yet revealed any detailed carbon roadmap for 2060.
This includes investing in a reliable and renewable power
system and demonstrating technologies that transform heavy industry using
hydrogen, biofuel and carbon capture and utilisation.
"With early and systematic action, China can deliver
better environmental and social outcomes for its citizens while being a force
for good in the global fight against climate change," Mallika Ishwaran,
chief economist of Shell International, told a webinar hosted by the company's
China business.
Shell expects China's electricity generation to rise
three-fold to more than 60EJ in 2060 from 20EJ in 2020.
Solar and wind power are expected to surpass coal as the
largest sources of electricity by 2034 in China versus the current 10per cent,
rising to 80per cent by 2060, Shell said.
Hydrogen is expected to scale up to 17 exajoules (EJ), or
equivalent to 580 million tonnes of coal by 2060, up from almost negligible
currently, adding over 85per cent of the hydrogen will be produced through
electrolysis powered by renewable and nuclear electricity, Shell said.
Hydrogen will meet 16per cent of total energy use in 2060
with heavy industry and long-distance transport as top hydrogen users, the firm
added.
The firm also expects China's carbon price to rise to 1,300
yuan ($204.82) per tonne in 2060 from 300 yuan in 2030.
Nuclear and biomass will have niche but important roles for
power generation in the years to come, Shell said.
Electricity generated from biomass, combined with carbon,
capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), provide a source of negative emissions
for the rest of the energy system from 2053, it added.
($1 = 6.3470 Chinese yuan renminbi)
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