LDP to lose seats, but keep comfortable majority with Komeito: poll
TOKYO :Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lose
seats in the House of Representatives in Sunday's general election but it will
retain a comfortable majority together with its coalition partner Komeito, a
Kyodo News survey showed Wednesday.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took office less than a
month ago, is expected to claim a mandate for his COVID-19 and economic
policies with such a result. There will be little, if any, change to the
cabinet line-up if voters decide to keep the current government, he said in a
TV appearance on Tuesday.
The LDP could fail to retain all of the 276 seats it held in
the 465-seat lower chamber of parliament prior to the election, while the main
opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is struggling to gain
momentum toward adding to its 110 seats, according to the survey.
But the LDP and Komeito together could win more than 261
seats, enough to effectively control all standing committees in the lower house
and push their legislative agenda forward.
Kyodo News polled about 119,000 eligible voters by phone
from Saturday to Tuesday. Around 40 percent said they had not yet decided how
to vote in the single-member district portion of the election, indicating the
result could still swing in either direction.
Kishida has vowed to bolster Japan's medical system to
combat COVID-19 and spark economic growth, while standing firm against China's
growing assertiveness and shoring up defenses to address the North Korean
missile threat.
Opposition figures including CDPJ leader Yukio Edano argue
wealth disparities have widened during the nearly nine years of LDP rule under
Kishida's predecessors, Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe, criticizing
"Abenomics" for boosting corporate earnings and share prices but
failing to spark wage gains.
While the LDP has the upper hand in around 200 of the 289
single-member districts, where voters choose from a list of candidates, it
faces stiff competition in 70 or so.
Kishida has said he will claim victory if the LDP-led
coalition retains a majority of, or at least 233, seats, a fairly low bar.
"Just a small momentum shift could mean losing a lot of
seats," he said in a BS Fuji news program on Tuesday night. "It could
also mean winning in a landslide. We have to stay on our toes every day."
Kishida said during the program that in principle, he plans
to keep the members of his cabinet unchanged. "We just got started the
other day. I need them to get to work."
The government hopes to get the Diet's approval for a
supplementary budget within the year to fund a COVID-19 stimulus package, he
said.
Through proportional representation, under which parties are
awarded seats based on the votes they get in 11 regional blocks, the LDP looks
set to secure close to the 66 seats it held prior to Kishida's dissolution of
the lower house on Oct 14.
The left-leaning CDPJ, which has formed an alliance with the
Japanese Communist Party and other opposition groups to consolidate candidates
in the election, is ahead in more than 50 single-member districts but will need
victories in battleground constituencies to make gains.
Meanwhile, the Japan Innovation Party, a right-leaning
opposition party that aligns with the LDP on some issues such as constitutional
revision, is riding a wave of momentum and could triple its 11 seats,
especially if it can win outside of its base in western Japan's Kansai region.
Komeito, which is backed by the Soka Gakkai lay Buddhist
organization, could end up with more than the 29 seats it held, while the JCP
could also add to its 11 seats, according to the survey.
The Democratic Party for the People, which held eight seats
heading into the election, is looking to keep six through single-member
districts and add a few more via proportional representation, which accounts
for 176 of the seats in the lower house.
The anti-establishment Reiwa Shinsengumi is likely to pick
up at least one seat through proportional representation, while the Social
Democratic Party is set to retain a seat in a single-member district.
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